当前通讯！内需加速恢复 多位经济学家预判经济回暖

尽管外部环境复杂严峻，世界经济陷入滞胀风险上升，国内经济恢复基础尚不牢固，但是我国经济韧性强、潜力大、活力足、长期向好基本面没有改变。随着疫情防控转入新阶段，各项政策不断落实落细，生产生活秩序有望加快恢复，经济增长内生动力将不断积聚增强。

(相关资料图)

Beijing Automobile Works Co employees work on an assembly line at a factory in the company"s Qingdao headquarters in Shandong province on Saturday. China"s automobile sales in 2022 reached 26.86 million units, a year-on-year growth of 2.1 percent. ZHANG JINGANG/FOR CHINA DAILY

China"s economy has shown signs of resilience and vitality, and is set to rebound strongly in 2023 with a gradual pickup in domestic demand, including consumption and investment, according to economists.

经济学家表示，中国经济已经显示出韧性和充满活力的迹象，并将在2023年出现强劲反弹，包括消费和投资在内的国内需求将逐步回升。

They said the world"s second-largest economy will likely see economic prospects improve noticeably in the second quarter given the optimized COVID-19 containment measures. Private consumption and infrastructure spending will be the key drivers of the rebound.

他们表示，由于新冠疫情防控措施的优化，中国的经济前景可能会在第二季度显著改善。私人消费和基础设施支出将是经济复苏的主要推动力。

"China"s growth potential remains strong," said Lin Jianhai, vice-president of the International Finance Forum (IFF).

“中国的增长潜力依然强劲，”国际金融论坛副理事长林建海表示。

Even though the economy will likely face some difficulties in the first few months of the year, growth, particularly in consumption, is expected to pick up from the second quarter as waves of COVID-19 subside, Lin, who is also former secretary of the International Monetary Fund, told China Daily.

曾担任国际货币基金组织秘书长的林建海在接受《中国日报》采访时表示，尽管中国经济在今年头几个月可能会面临一些困难，但随着新冠疫情的消退，经济增长，尤其是消费增长，预计将从第二季度开始回升。

"For the year, various projections point to a growth rate of about 5 percent or even higher (in China)," he added.

他补充说：“今年，各种预测都指出，中国经济增长率将达到约5%甚至更高。”

The tone-setting Central Economic Work Conference, which concluded in mid-December, has sent a clear signal that reviving the COVID-hit economy and bringing GDP growth back within a reasonable range will be a major task of the government.

2022年12月中旬闭幕的中央经济工作会议发出了明确信号，即重振受疫情影响的经济，使国内生产总值增长回到合理区间，将是政府的主要任务。

China"s pro-growth stance and the optimization of COVID-19 control measures have cheered investors and analysts. Many economists and banks have recently upgraded their forecasts for China"s growth prospects to above 5 percent for this year.

中国稳增长的立场和疫情防控措施的优化令投资者和分析师感到振奋。许多经济学家和银行最近都将他们对中国今年经济增长前景的预测上调至5%以上。

Morgan Stanley recently raised its forecast for China"s economic growth this year from 5.4 percent to 5.7 percent, saying a robust cyclical recovery can occur despite lingering structural headwinds.

摩根士丹利最近将今年中国经济增长预期从5.4%上调至5.7%，称尽管结构性不利因素犹存，但强劲的周期性复苏仍可能出现。

Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management"s chief investment officer, said China could see economic prospects improve by the spring.

摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官丽莎•沙利特表示，到春季，中国经济前景可能会有所改善。

Shalett said that China"s growth prospects could also have positive spillover effects for other economies in Asia and Latin America in 2023 in areas such as exports and tourism.

沙利特表示，2023年，中国的增长前景也可能在出口和旅游等领域对亚洲和拉丁美洲的其他经济体产生积极的溢出效应。

Local governments have voiced optimism for a robust 2023 upon expectations of a gradual recovery in domestic activity.

由于预计国内经济活动将逐步复苏，地方政府对2023年的强劲增长表示乐观。

China"s 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities have set their growth target for this year within a range of 4 percent to 9.5 percent, with most of them targeting around 6 percent.

中国31个省区市将今年经济增长预期目标确定在4%至9.5%之间，大多数省区市的预期目标在6%左右。

Zhou Maohua, an analyst at China Everbright Bank, said that localities have given priority to the expansion of domestic demand, saying more efforts will be made to spur consumption, continuously deepen reforms, accelerate industrial upgrading and promote high-quality development.

中国光大银行分析师周茂华表示，各地已经把扩大内需放在了优先位置，并表示将加大力度刺激消费，不断深化改革，加快产业升级，促进高质量发展。

The four provinces with the highest economic volume — Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang — have all targeted annual growth of around 5 percent for this year. Guangdong, Shandong and Zhejiang set their growth targets at "above 5 percent", while Jiangsu vowed to reach a growth rate of around 5 percent.

经济总量最大的四个省份——广东、江苏、山东和浙江——今年的经济增长目标都在5%左右。广东、山东和浙江将其增长目标设定为“5%以上”，而江苏的目标是5%左右。

"China will likely post above 5 percent economic growth in 2023 given the further implementation of optimized COVID control measures, a package of stimulus policies taking effect gradually and the low comparison base in the previous year," Zhou added.

周茂华补充说：“考虑到疫情防控措施进一步优化，一揽子刺激政策逐步生效，以及前一年基数比较低，2023年中国经济增长可能会超过5%。”

编辑：yaning

标签： 经济增长 中国经济 经济学家